In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has “amputated Russia’s future”. Russia is bound to be a weaker, less influential actor for the foreseeable future. What is published in NATO Review does not constitute the official position or policy of NATO or member governments.NATO Review seeks to inform and promote debate on security issues.
Unprecedented, supposedly game-changing US and EU sanctions will follow an invasion. They include potentially crippling curbs on Russian banks, corporations, exports, loans and technology transfers, diplomatic isolation and the targeting of Putin’s personal wealth and that of his oligarch cronies. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany will be frozen indefinitely. Putin wants an institutionally weak, dependent Ukraine that is responsive to his will and detached from the west – like Belarus. He can be expected to put pro-Moscow politicians in charge in Kyiv while eliminating opponents and fixing elections (as in Russia). US officials believe the Kremlin has drafted a list of public figures earmarked for arrest or assassination.
Aid and politics
The United States and its allies may further reinforce NATO's eastern flank with major ground and air units. They might increase stocks of PGMs, such as the new medium-range ballistic Precision Strike Missile. Given Russia's potential mass use of long-range PGMs, NATO may have to improve its aerospace defenses. The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. They could help deny Moscow the capacity to conduct a large-scale heavy fire power campaign to rapidly occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and seize key cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Ukrainian military officials have conceded that hopes and expectations of a great breakthrough in the counteroffensive were not met.
- What that means exactly isn't clear — and Moscow may want it that way.
- But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks.
- If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further.
While it remains unclear whether Russia will invade Ukraine, experts such as retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman are not confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold off. On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being most likely that an invasion will happen, Vindman gives it an 8. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC he believes American and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved come January, saying he believed this funding would tide Ukraine over for another year, militarily. Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands. In the meantime, the ISW noted in an analysis, "Ukrainian forces establish and consolidate defensive positions to conserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts."
Russia's economy is still working but sanctions are starting to have an effect
With both Ukraine and Russia investing heavily in the war, it's unlikely there will be any negotiations to end the conflict or agree to a cease-fire. Defense analysts argue that neither side would want to go into negotiations unless they're in a position of strength and able to dictate terms. Ukrainian pilots are beginning their training on the jets now but it could be a number of months before they're deployed in Ukraine.
The U.S. has placed sanctions on Russia, including in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. More sanctions came after Russia's interference in the U.S. election in 2016. Last April, the U.S. levied sanctions against Russia after the 2020 SolarWinds cyberattack, which compromised nearly 100 companies and government agencies, including Microsoft, Intel, the Defense Department and more. Among them are Russia's desire to have "legally binding guarantees" that Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, the removal of NATO arms from Eastern Europe, a ban on intermediate-range missiles in Europe and autonomy for eastern Ukraine. Russia has 100,000 troops lined up next to Ukraine, with tanks and artillery.
Kherson's underground resistance: How ordinary people fought Russia from the shadows
But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect. Kyiv’s politicians used to be notoriously fractious – not least because of divisions between the pro and anti-Russian camps. Once Putin rolled his tanks in, pro-Russian sentiment largely vanished. “We have become so comfortable here in Britain that it’s hard to imagine young people fighting, and when I went to Afghanistan a decade ago, I didn’t think the youngsters of would be up to much,” he said. The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier.
Ukraine's position is that Russian troops must pull back beyond Ukraine's internationally recognised borders for there to be peace. It is backed by two UN resolutions, passed days after the invasion and hours before the first anniversary of the war. Special funding assistance will be required for long-term training and the modernisation of Ukrainian forces, de facto bringing them to NATO standards. This is necessary, as Ukrainian weapon stocks composed of Soviet-standards equipment are depleted, and availability of such arms outside Ukraine is limited too. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-putins-goal-in-ukraine.html for Ukraine – already successful in Lithuania – shows that the general international public is sympathetic and wants to play its part in this process. To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength.
- So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out.
- The prospect of formidable Ukrainian resistance could affect the Kremlin's risk-benefit calculus.
- The US and UK have not ruled out arming resistance fighters, as during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
- As diplomats met in Brussels on Tuesday, it remained unclear whether Putin’s order to send troops into Ukraine would be the trigger for the massive sanctions the EU has been threatening for weeks.
So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied.
- In the meantime, NATO countries "would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance."
- Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January.
- Putin denied a second wave of mobilization was necessary for now, but in early December he signed a decree ordering the military to increase the number of Russian armed forces personnel by 170,000, bringing the total number of troops to 1.32 million.
- Constanze Stelzenmüller, a security policy expert at the Brookings Institute, said Ukraine's military has improved greatly since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
- Other analysts warn of a "quagmire" — where there is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia — if an insurgency continued long term.