The West's bet was that the threat of sanctions would be enough to deter Russian aggression. This is a question lots of you put forward and has been tackled by our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes here... On the face of it no one wants this conflict to spread but there is always the law of unintended consequences and mistakes and misunderstandings escalating into an expanded conflict, as has happened in wars in the past. International affairs editor Dominic Waghorn and our team of specialist correspondents answered your questions on the Ukraine crisis in a live digital Q&A. They are feeling distinctly nervous that Russian forces might not stop at Ukraine and instead use some pretext to "come to the aid" of the ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltics and invade.
- Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, before declaring itself an independent country, cementing the move in a referendum days before the USSR collapsed in December 1991.
- He said the UK and its allies will launch a "massive package" of sanctions - commercial and financial penalties - to "hobble" Russia's economy.
- No Ukrainian president could accept those terms, and so Zelensky, under continued Russian pressure, has turned to the West for help, talking openly about wanting to join NATO.
- Those divisions — which Washington is trying very hard to keep contained — may embolden Putin.
And he added that any intervention from outside powers to resist the Russian attack would be met with an "instant" and devastating response. A few months into office, the Biden administration spoke about a “stable, predictable” relationship with Russia. To Putin, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal (which Moscow would know something about) and the US’s domestic turmoil are signs of weakness.
Life in Ukraine's 'grey zone'
Under Nato's Article 5 the entire western military alliance is obliged to come to the defence of any member state that comes under attack. Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. The Biden administration, along with its European allies, is trying to come up with an aggressive plan to punish Russia, should it invade again. The so-called nuclear options — such as an oil and gas embargo, or cutting Russia off from SWIFT, the electronic messaging service that makes global financial transactions possible — seem unlikely, in part because of the ways it could hurt the global economy. Russia isn’t an Iran or North Korea; it is a major economy that does a lot of trade, especially in raw materials and gas and oil.
- It is estimated the UK has spent £2.3bn on military assistance, making the country the second biggest military donor behind the US.
- The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced.
- Military kit also needs boots on the ground to operate it – hence Sir Patrick’s call for a “Citizen Army” to boost the regular Armed Forces.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal.
- Moscow has fueled unrest since, and has continued to destabilize and undermine Ukraine through cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and disinformation campaigns.
Russia kicks off military drills in Belarus as Britain warns Moscow that going to war with Ukraine would have disastrous consequences. It was yet another indication that hardware was being beefed up around the strategic Black Sea, where Russia, Ukraine and three NATO allies have bases. "Our advice to them is very clear; this is a very dangerous situation and for your own safety, you should seek to make your way out of Ukraine. It will be a very volatile situation if there is conflict there," he said. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison repeated warnings for Australians to leave Ukraine over fears of a Russian invasion. Several NATO allies, including Britain, Norway and Denmark, are also asking their citizens to leave Ukraine.
Putin's intent
Lithuania's prime minister, for example, told Insider in February that her country joined NATO "because of Putin." Hall said the idea that NATO is threatening Russia by expanding towards its borders is "very much part of the Russian propaganda narrative." Here are the reasons Putin gave, how they match with reality, and the other likely reasons why Russia sent its armed forces into an independent, sovereign nation.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life. Ukraine, say, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas. In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.
But war, if it happened, could be devastating to Ukraine, with unpredictable fallout for the rest of Europe and the West. The US and its European allies have responded to Putin’s aggression with unprecedented sanctions, but have no plans to send troops to Ukraine, for good reason. Yet even for some among the pro-Kremlin conservatives fighting in Ukraine, there is a nostalgia for Lenin as a powerful historical figure. “Every thinking Russian is proud that we had Lenin, that we have Lenin,” wrote Zakhar Prilepin, a writer and paramilitary leader. Luke Harding reports from Kupiansk, where almost two years after Vladimir Putin’s all-out invasion, Moscow has mobilised tens of thousands of troops.
- The Biden administration has put a huge emphasis on working with NATO, the European Union, and individual European partners to counter Putin.
- This meant Putin could wait to see if the alliance would " kind of shatter from within."
- If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced.
- On February 15, Russia had said it planned “to partially pull back troops,” a possible signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be willing to deescalate.