The United States and NATO allies worry that Russia may be planning an invasion. Washington has proclaimed an “ironclad commitment” to Ukraine's security. Europe’s most divisive energy project, Nord Stream 2 bypasses the traditional gas transit nation of Ukraine by running along the bed of the Baltic Sea.
- Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.
- True Russian cyberwarfare capabilities have proved something of a damp squib in Ukraine.
- NATO and the European Union have, to a large extent, responded effectively in the first months of the war.
- They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "should become a victim of an act of aggression".
- Allies should thus consider, as a matter of urgency, persuasive signalling to Russia about possible conventional military responses (e.g. a disabling of Russian military targets in the Black Sea) that would come as a result of such acts.
- As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia.
February 24, 2022, is likely to engrave itself on the history template of the contemporary world. Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and barbaric invasion of Ukraine is not only a manifestation of a huge security danger that has shattered peace in Europe. "You can have all the technology you want but it's very difficult to control a country if even a significant minority are willing to fight - and I think they will in Ukraine. "As we've seen in Afghanistan the most sophisticated army in the world can be defeated by a determined but pretty poorly armed resistance.
What happens if Russia invades Ukraine? How the UK and Nato would respond if Putin launches an invasion
Whether people would be flocking into recruitment offices is open to question. According to a 2022 YouGov poll, only one in five Britons would volunteer for service in the event of an invasion. The decline in manufacturing means there are far fewer factories that can be converted to make arms, as happened in the Second World War, when car makers churned out Spitfire parts.
Russia has captured the town of Soledar this year and has hopes of seizing the eastern city of Bakhmut on the road to key cities to the west, and of recapturing territory it lost last autumn. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. The collective West (and specifically NATO) can count on its likely ability to contain an aggressive Russia, at least in the long run.
European security
Support would pour in from many directions, many sources, and of many kinds. In terms of how it will be accelerated, Poland has offered to be a logistics hub for the deployment. Western nations are acutely aware of the need to quicken this, with Ukraine concerned that it's running out of ammunition. We hear from metro stations turned refuges that people are coming together to help each other.
All efforts comprising security and confidence-building measures, or institutional arrangements designed to preserve peace, suddenly look very fragile when faced with blunt force. After many months of Moscow engaging in sham dialogue and blatantly lying to other countries and institutions, including NATO and the OSCE, all trust has been eroded. Moreover, by creating economic shocks in the energy markets and weaponising famine as a political instrument, Russia has further globalised the consequences of its war. "Where the Ukrainians have an advantage is they're fighting for their own territory and all that massive firepower is going to be hard to use as an occupation force, as NATO found out in Afghanistan. He said there will likely be an initial phase where Russian and Ukrainian troops are fighting on the ground in Donbas and potentially around Kyiv but Russia will take control of the air very quickly. Boris Johnson has made clear the UK will not send troops to Ukraine if Russia launches a full-scale invasion, but there are other ways of aiding the European ally.
The defence expert, who held meetings in Moscow with Russian officials last week, said one of the extra options the UK could provide are intelligence surveillance reports. Both the US and the UK are also helping Ukraine manage Russian cyber attacks, which could lead to many Ukrainian deaths if key infrastructure is taken over by Moscow. A lot of the stark warnings we are hearing from our own government should be seen in that light. What we might want to worry about more is the impact on energy prices. Your parents are likely to pay even more for gas and electricity because of this crisis. US President Joe Biden has ruled out sending troops even to shepherd American citizens out of Ukraine because he said if Russians and Americans end up fighting that would be World War III.
Exploiting its overwhelming superiority in land, sea and air forces, Russia is expected to attack simultaneously on several fronts, from the north-east, the Donbas and Crimea. Ground troops in Belarus, backed by airstrikes, would spearhead a lightning drive south to seize the capital, Kyiv. Unfortunately, the attacks on Tuesday morning were just the latest of a series of acts of wanton destruction by Russia in Ukraine since we last gathered for a Permanent Council in December. Over the Christmas period, Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone strikes across cities in Ukraine including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv. This culminated on 29 December, when Russian unleashed its largest aerial assault against Ukraine since the war began. It killed at least 41 civilians, including a 15-year-old boy, wounded hundreds, and caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital.
But concrete pledges of national contributions, like those announced by US President Biden on 29 June, must follow quickly from all Allies. After more than four months of fighting, it is Russia that is experiencing manpower shortages. Numerous cases of conscription offices being set on fire in Russia suggest strongly that many young people are opposed to being sent to the frontlines in Ukraine.
- The admiral described Russia's military build-up on its border with Ukraine as "deeply worrying".
- All efforts comprising security and confidence-building measures, or institutional arrangements designed to preserve peace, suddenly look very fragile when faced with blunt force.
- With Russian forces amassing at the border over recent weeks, the UK responded by sending Ukraine "self-defence" weapons.
- Compared to Cold War practice, today, Kremlin propagandists and officials engage in highly irresponsible rhetoric advocating for the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal against Ukraine, and possibly even against NATO states.
- Latest examples include curtailing gas supplies for political reasons, violating the airspace of a NATO country, threatening Lithuania, and using economic blackmail against Collective Security Treaty Organization member, Kazakhstan.
Russian troops made two attempts to storm the presidential compound, according to his adviser. His declared goal on 24 February 2022 was to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine and not occupy it by force, days after backing independence for eastern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian proxy forces since 2014. Further east in Kramatorsk, in the eastern Donetsk region, the BBC's Eastern European Correspondent Sarah Rainsford said people did not expect such a full-on assault. BBC correspondents heard loud bangs in the capital Kyiv, as well as Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and the country will not recover its reputation for a long time.
- Hundreds of thousands of people, including children, have been forcefully deported to Russia.
- Despite warnings from the US and its Nato allies that any invasion by Russia of Ukraine would have "severe economic consequences," Moscow's military build-up on the border continues.
- But barring Putin’s sudden departure - which would trigger a political transformation in Moscow - Russia will still present a dangerous threat to security in Europe.
- Something that could help Ukraine would be the ability to use long-range western weapons, such as Britain's Storm Shadow missile or American ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems), against military targets inside Russia.
- Analysts say Russia could opt for a more limited, less risky offensive to grab extra territory in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas, while asserting the independence of pro-Moscow breakaway republics there, as in Georgia in 2008.
- These are different from strategic nuclear weapons, like the ones used by the US in Japan during the Second World War, but would still represent a significant escalation.
Public buildings and metro stations would be used as air raid shelters, while anti-aircraft guns might be hidden in parks. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-france-doing-to-help-ukraine.html is arriving here in Poland by train too, including from the Czech Republic. It's hard to say whether or not it is not "going according to plan" because no one knows what President's Putin plan is. But there've been reports of Russian convoys running out of fuel, Russian soldiers losing the will to fight, and Ukrainians fighting back - both soldiers and civilians, some armed only with the force of patriotism. As diplomats met in Brussels on Tuesday, it remained unclear whether Putin’s order to send troops into Ukraine would be the trigger for the massive sanctions the EU has been threatening for weeks.
- US President Joe Biden has ruled out sending troops even to shepherd American citizens out of Ukraine because he said if Russians and Americans end up fighting that would be World War III.
- What would happen if Russia decided to target the UK with nuclear weapons?
- They say NATO's principles of freedom and democracy are under threat and NATO has acted in non-member countries before, like Libya and Kosovo.
- These are unpredictable, unfathomable times but I would still like to believe the answer is no - no to the bombing of Britain or any other country.
- A nuclear strike on any UK city would kill everyone within a 1.2-mile radius instantly.
Even weakened, Russia remains capable of inflicting heavy damage upon others. Counter-intuitively, preparing for a possible war with Russia is the best approach to prevent it. While the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 – though effectively torn to shreds by Russia – was not formally revoked at the Summit, any self-restrictions which NATO took on as part of the agreement should now be considered null and void.