And if he loses the war in Ukraine, he no longer looks like the person who should be at the helm of Russia; and you’ll get a lot more machinations behind the scenes and questions about his ability to manage things. So the best case scenario is, of course, one in which Ukraine continues to be able to hold its own and if we helped build it up militarily, where it can make another push or another series of pushes. If we think about World War Two and other wars, there were multiple offensive efforts, counteroffensives, and you just kept on trying until you succeeded. It will be very difficult to have an absolute victory over Russia. But what you want to have is Ukraine in a position to have a negotiation, a diplomatic solution, on its terms, not on Russia’s terms.
- Crucially, Allies have finally attributed responsibility where it lies, calling Russia “the most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security” in their new Strategic Concept.
- Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and the country will not recover its reputation for a long time.
- Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union.
- Despite the success of these negotiations over grains, the Brookings’ Stent worries that the squeeze on energy supply chains—either as a result of the war or sanctions on Russia—will make it “increasingly difficult to sustain Western unity” in the long term.
- And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus.
- In this scenario, the strategists noted, Russia would realize it has "once again fought an unwinnable war, the proverbial quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history."
Spencer, the urban warfare specialist, said even Putin is limited, to a degree, by the rules of war, and so he is likely to claim that civilian infrastructure — like hospitals — are also military targets. Taking Kyiv would mean taking control of Ukraine — or at least deposing the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president whose defiance has galvanized the Ukrainian resistance. Most experts believe Russia will prevail, especially if it can cut off Kyiv, and the Ukrainian resistance, from supplies. The collective West (and specifically NATO) can count on its likely ability to contain an aggressive Russia, at least in the long run. But Ukraine’s defeat of the aggressor is the indispensable goal in this context as it would severely limit Russia’s ability to attack other countries, provide time to augment collective defence and consolidate international unity against aggression. Madrid Summit decisions have supplied key elements of the required strategy.
Ukraine invasion — explained
"We need to give them weapons like Javelin anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, ammunition and protective equipment. Every Nato nation should be helping them," he says. President Putin has clearly spent months closeted in isolation, studying his defence chiefs' plans to take over his West-leaning Slavic neighbour and bring it back into Moscow's orbit. First, Putin has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union. Second, he thinks that a western-leaning Ukraine is dangerous for Russia.
- They have also developed a strong civil resistance enabled by volunteers of all stripes.
- The ring of friends it has surrounded itself with, especially in the east with Poland and the Baltic states, risks being destabilized by Russia.
- Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia.
- Moscow increasingly restricts the movement of Ukrainian-bound vessels in the area, and experts say Russia could blockade the southeastern port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol, choking off an important shipping channel.
- “All the nation is involved, not only the army,” said a Ukrainian person who has been supplying medicines.
Ukraine is on the defensive on the battlefield and contemplating a new mobilization that would likely be domestically unpopular, while striving daily to shore up critically needed Western support. For Ukraine’s part, Zelensky has made it clear that Ukraine will fight to regain control of the fallen regions. “Ukrainians are not ready to give away their land, to accept that these territories belong to Russia.
Ukraine is fighting back
But that imagined a blitzkrieg-style ground campaign that could take big cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv. The recognition of the territories and occupation by Russian forces is also an act of aggression but it is not the nightmare scenario. Russia’s military is likely to make a formal entrance into the territories soon.
We anticipated that [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy would have gone into exile, the Ukrainians would have capitulated, then there would be a very messy insurgency against the Russian forces. So if we start from that point, militarily, and we look at what’s happened over the last two years, we can actually say that Ukraine has won in terms of securing its independence, and has won by fighting Russia to a standstill. Hill sees U.S. domestic politics as the main obstacle to Ukraine’s ability to win. She has long warned, including in a book published after she left the White House, that high levels of partisanship in the United States promote authoritarianism both at home and around the world. She’s been talking to some lawmakers about Ukraine, and she’s worried that their partisanship has blinded them to the dangers the country faces if Putin gets his way. "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres.
Russia-Ukraine crisis
Russian military convoys have crossed from Belarus into Ukraine's northern Chernihiv region, and from Russia into the Sumy region, which is also in the north, Ukraine's border guard service (DPSU) said. There are reports of attacks on Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country, and Russian convoys entering from all directions. " https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-many-troops-does-ukraine-have.html have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure," Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR. Various federal agencies, including the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security, have warned of possible cyberattacks on targets like big banks and power grid operators. Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe.
Still, as the days go on, this war could escalate to unimaginable levels of violence. The fighting across Ukraine has forced about 9.8 million people to flee so far, according to the United Nations. Nearly 6.5 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine, although tens of thousands of Ukrainians were already forcibly displaced before Russia’s invasion because of the eight-year war in the Donbas region.
- Russia’s military tactics in cities — witnessed in places like Syria and Grozny in Chechnya in 1999 — have shown little regard for civilian protection.
- We already see Russia shifting its position on the Iranian nuclear front, and we also see Russia making a major shift in its relationship with Israel.
- And then we’re going back and we’re ordering more because we’re replenishing and upgrading our own weapons stocks.
- We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.
- That’s not the position of this administration, to be very clear.
"Revenge" could take the form of cyber attacks - something the National Cyber Security Centre has already warned about. Often hard to attribute, these could target banks, businesses, individuals and even critical national infrastructure. "Putin," said a senior British military source on Tuesday, "is not about to attack Nato. He just wants to turn Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus."
- Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified and barbaric invasion of Ukraine is not only a manifestation of a huge security danger that has shattered peace in Europe.
- One thing that we need to bear in mind here is that Putin turned for assistance to two countries that should give Americans and members of Congress pause — Iran and North Korea.
- But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.
- Russia has also purposefully raised the level of risk for the possible use of nuclear weapons, the main goal primarily being to discourage Western Allies from offering military support to Ukraine and to instil fear in decision-makers.