How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the UK economy? Office for Budget Responsibility

· 6 min read
How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the UK economy? Office for Budget Responsibility

Western intelligence officials concluded that the incident fitted into a pattern of Russia widening its military activities to involve attacks on infrastructure underpinning Western economic and energy security. Balazs Orban, chief political aide to the prime minister, said Hungary sent a proposal to the EU over the weekend showing it was open to using the budget for the aid package if other "caveats" were added. A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. The UK's defence secretary has also warned that we need to be prepared for a war. In his first major speech on defence, Grant Shapps said the country was moving from a "post war to a pre-war world".

And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports. Putin and his inner circle are very much products of the Cold War and consider the breakup of the Soviet Union and its Communist Party dictatorship a humiliation. In that sense, the current conflict is a renewal or even a continuation of the Cold War because its goal is to restore Russia as America’s greatest military rival. That failed to happen, so the current invasion is an attempt to achieve a similar end using force on a massive scale.

The EU has to make a U-turn on teenagers driving lorries

Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and  Mr Yermak. This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO". If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to  the States through NATO.

Russia's ambitions, he said, were not just about seizing territory but "about defeating our system and way of life politically, psychologically and symbolically". But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces. Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey. If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. Military kit also needs boots on the ground to operate it – hence Sir Patrick’s call for a “Citizen Army” to boost the regular Armed Forces.

UK will not look away from Russia invasion in Ukraine - PM

Even with prices falling faster than expected, next winter still looks challenging – and energy is likely to remain front and centre of the political agenda well beyond that. The prime minister did confirm that 1,000 more troops would be put on alert in the UK if Russia were to invade although Downing Street is likely to follow the lead set by Nato. The Russian president said his goal was the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, warning that if the West were to interfere they would endure “consequences they had never seen”. He said he was launching a “special military operation” in the east of the country. Putin already sent in “peacekeeping troops” to two separatist regions of Ukraine on Monday – prompting the West to issue a string of sanctions against Russia – but went even further early Thursday morning when he declared war on Ukraine.

  • Xi remains one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies of the major powers, and his views on a potential peace plan could prove key for the future of the conflict in Ukraine.
  • The Prime Minister also suggested Britain could provide more military support to Ukraine as legislation to allow for tougher UK sanctions against Russia were expected to come into force today.
  • Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply.
  • Russia has denied plans for military action, but an estimated 100,000 troops have amassed on the border.
  • There are also 53 entities on the sanctions list, which mainly covers Russian-backed militias in eastern Ukraine but also includes a number of companies and the five Russian banks added on Tuesday.

A Conservative MP has warned that Vladimir Putin may be planning ways to attack the UK and Nato allies, following reports that a fleet of spy ships is mapping wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. Phillips P OBrien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, wrote in an analysis piece that the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could see the US "neuter" the Western military alliance. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when. He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers.

Downing Street said the leaders agreed that if a further Russian incursion took place, "allies must enact swift retributive responses including an unprecedented package of sanctions". But while by far the most significant consequences of the invasion over the past year have clearly been for the people of the Ukraine (and Russia), the advent of war in mainland Europe has also had consequences for UK government. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl.

Ambassador Neil Holland condemns Russia's air attacks this week on Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as the spate of attacks on Ukraine over the past month. The sea-based missiles have a reported range of 900km and travel several times the speed of sound which would make it hard to defend against them. After eight years in government – as highlighted by his campaign posters, which are emblazoned with the number in a big yellow font – Stubb said his return had been spurred by Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Debates between the nine candidates hoping to take over from Finland’s two-term president Sauli Niinistö in March had been “very constructive”, said Stubb, of the centre-right National Coalition party. Funding for Kyiv has been tied to policies to address the flow of migrants across the US-Mexico border.

  • The Foreign Office has warned against all travel to Crimea and two areas of eastern Ukraine, Donetsk oblast and Luhansk oblast.
  • The Biden administration has announced the approval of a $23bn deal to sell F-16 warplanes to Turkey, after Ankara ratified Sweden’s Nato membership, the state department said.
  • The Netherlands has joined the IT coalition to aid Ukraine in its war efforts, Ukraine’s defence ministry said today.
  • A little earlier, we told you about a report in the Financial Times that the EU was proposing to sabotage Hungary's economy if Budapest blocks further aid for Ukraine this week.
  • “Preparations for the repatriation had been underway for a long time,” Ukraine’s coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war said in a statement.

But the US has said the issue at stake is Russian aggression, not Nato expansion. Speaking as the Foreign Office pulled some embassy staff out of Ukraine, the PM said the situation was "pretty gloomy" but war was not inevitable. On 24 January Nato announced it was putting forces on standby and sending additional ships and fighter jets to Nato deployments in eastern Europe, “reinforcing Allied deterrence and defence”. Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace said these troops would be used “first and foremost” to deal with any humanitarian crisis. The Prime Minister also suggested Britain could provide more military support to Ukraine as legislation to allow for tougher UK sanctions against Russia were expected to come into force today. The prospect of further UK sanctions against Russia comes a day after the prime minister announced that five Russian banks had had their assets frozen and three Russian billionaires would have travel bans imposed.

  • Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected".
  • Russian forces seized control of Crimea before the territory voted to join Russia in a referendum the West and Ukraine deemed illegal.
  • Russia considers the alliance as a threat, and is demanding legal guarantees that it will not expand further east, including into Ukraine.
  • It killed at least 41 civilians, including a 15-year-old boy, wounded hundreds, and caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital.

A source familiar with the situation said the drone fell at about 7am local time but had not affected fuel output. The attack on the Slavneft-YANOS refinery caused no fire or casualties, governor Mikhail Yevrayev said.  https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-doesnt-ukraine-attack-moscow.html , who has been serving prison time since 2021 after leading street protests and starting a nationwide opposition movement, was recently moved to a penal colony in Russia's far north. As expected, Vladimir Putin has been officially registered as a candidate for the Russian presidential election this March.

what does russia invading ukraine mean for the uk