In mid-March, Aleksei Miniailo, a former social entrepreneur and current opposition politician, oversaw another telephone survey with the aim of trying to capture the effects of fear and propaganda on survey data. And that figure came from among those who agreed to participate at all; Miniailo suspected that the polls were not capturing a majority of the real antiwar sentiment, whatever its size. On some level, the data likely reflect an impulse, whether born of fear or passivity, to repeat approved messages rather than articulate your own. Even before the war, Russia was not the kind of place where you willy-nilly shared your political beliefs with strangers, let alone with those who called out of the blue.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels.
'It's been a long time coming'
And when it comes to Russian war casualties, Koneva said the losses have been successfully covered up by the country’s strict censorship measures. Koneva said that in June 2023, respondents were asked to send "virtual telegrams to ordinary Ukrainian citizens." “For example, a person says, 'I support,' but then researchers will follow up with questions to determine if they are ready to go to war, ready to donate to the Russian army or expect benefits from a possible victory," Koneva explained. Overall, researchers say they have tracked just a 9% fall in support for the war last year. In a written response to questions, she said that despite the self-censorship, pollsters "can usually have higher confidence in the reliability of poll findings that show some fluctuation over time."
Once Putin rolled his tanks in, pro-Russian sentiment largely vanished. Right now, such scenarios tend to exercise only the minds of Ministry of Defence war-gamers and military thriller writers. But far-fetched as they might sound, General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of Britain’s army, believes it is time we dwelt on them more. As fighting intensifies, cross-Channel shipping is attacked by Russian submarines, and long-range conventional missiles strike Dover and Southampton.
Finns vote in tight presidential race amid 'hybrid operation' claims
From fleeting impressions and conversations it is hard to draw firm conclusions. Sociologists and pollsters have tried to gauge opinion, but there is no freedom of speech or information in Russia so it is impossible to tell if people are being honest. A bus service has started up connecting the city to the local cemetery where growing numbers of soldiers killed in Ukraine are being buried.
- Yanukovych signed the Kharkiv Accords extending the Black Sea Fleet basing agreement to 2042, and Ukraine adopted a ‘non-bloc’ foreign policy and changed its approach to national identity questions such as the Holodomor.
- One is peddled by the best-known talk-show hosts who tell viewers that the “special operation” is part of Russia’s total and existential war with the West—which is, of course, hell-bent on obliterating Russia.
- We would also like to hear from Russians living in the UK, US or elsewhere.
- Viktor isn't worried either, but does get basic military training at his university, which is common in Ukraine.
- In the mid-1970s, young scientists had virtually no contact with western collaborators, he remembers.
- Hundreds of thousands of Russians have left Russia, including me and my BBC Russian colleagues.
"We must understand that polls show us not what people really think or really believe, but what they want to share," he says. Volkov found that some 80% of respondents do support the military, but that group is by no means a monolith. He says about 50% have "definite support" without any qualms, but the other 30% have support with reservations.
Permafrost is the permanently frozen ground found across the Arctic. As it thaws, it creates massive problems for infrastructure built on top of it, causing roads to buckle, building foundations to crack and pipelines to break. However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia. A little earlier, we told you about a report in the Financial Times that the EU was proposing to sabotage Hungary's economy if Budapest blocks further aid for Ukraine this week. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US.
- I want peace, but my grandmother thinks our military is needed to protect Russians in eastern Ukraine.
- "We will survive just fine, she says. We have a big country, rich in resources. No-one will be able to bring us to our knees with sanctions."
- Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl.
- Russia-based research outfits such as the Levada Center have been able to maintain some independence, but face higher rates of non-response.
- European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO.
Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply. Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. We would like to hear from Russian people living and working in Russia about their thoughts on the situation with Ukraine.
- There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite.
- By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences.
- It's quick to set up, and you can be confident that you're making a significant impact every month by supporting open, independent journalism.
- You don’t know when your friends and family will be taken away for mobilisation.
I can do without access to the blocked social media platforms. One of my friends is against our government while her grandmother supports them, and I know that’s caused a quarrel between them. I don’t support that view, but I do think we need some changes. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-will-happen-if-russia-wins-ukraine.html in eastern Ukraine broke out in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea. Next, two separatist regions in Donbas, Donetsk and Luhansk, declared their independence from Kyiv. It sparked a conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists, which has seen casualties on both sides.