The Kremlin has defended its actions, saying that it has the right to move its military around its own territory. But the unusual movement of large numbers of troops and weapons suggests Russia is planning an invasion — or is trying to convince Ukraine and its allies that an invasion is imminent. Russia has massed around 100,000 troops along its borders with Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin could be preparing to launch a full-scale invasion sometime this winter. By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences. The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so. But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.
- Originally Ukraine was part of the Russian empire (USSR) but it won independence when the empire dissolved in 1991.
- Evident atrocities fitting the criteria of war crimes are being perpetrated and accompanied by genocidal talk on Russian state TV.
- The prospect of formidable Ukrainian resistance could affect the Kremlin's risk-benefit calculus.
- This could be “our 1937 moment“, and everything possible must be done in order to stop territorial expansion by force, thereby averting a war similar to the one that ravaged Europe 80 years ago.
Putin has turned Russia into an international pariah and the country will not recover its reputation for a long time. In spite of the totalitarian nature of the Russian political system today, some signs of dissent (even amongst high ranking diplomats) show a growing recognition of these facts. As one astute Russian expert put it, Putin has “amputated Russia’s future”. Russia is bound to be a weaker, less influential actor for the foreseeable future. February 24, 2022, is likely to engrave itself on the history template of the contemporary world.
If Russia Invaded Ukraine
The top commander of Canada's military said last year that Canadian forces must avoid "crossing the line from deterrence into escalation." Canada has about 200 soldiers stationed in Ukraine to assist the local military. It's unlikely they would be thrown into battle during a Russian invasion. Constanze Stelzenmüller, a security policy expert at the Brookings Institute, said Ukraine's military has improved greatly since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The Kremlin has called for a guarantee that NATO won't expand eastward into areas that Russia considers part of its sphere of influence.
President Putin warned in December that the war "could be a lengthy process", but then added later that Russia's goal was "not to spin the flywheel of military conflict", but to end it. Europe’s most divisive energy project, Nord Stream 2 bypasses the traditional gas transit nation of Ukraine by running along the bed of the Baltic Sea. Western countries have condemned the threat and are likely to impose sanctions on Moscow this week. And they have made clear that they will not send combat troops to Ukraine.
What gains has Russia made?
To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists. For years, the Russian president has denied Ukraine its own statehood, writing in a lengthy 2021 essay that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people" dating back to the late 9th Century. He vowed to protect people from eight years of Ukrainian bullying and genocide - a Russian propaganda claim with no foundation in reality. He spoke of preventing Nato from gaining a foothold in Ukraine, then added another objective of ensuring Ukraine's neutral status. After https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-doesnt-ukraine-bomb-russia.html of humiliating retreats, his initial invasion plan has clearly failed, but Russia's war is far from over.
- By avoiding Russian efforts at rapid encirclement, Ukraine could trade space for time.
- According to a 2022 YouGov poll, only one in five Britons would volunteer for service in the event of an invasion.
- Ukrainian military officials have said they would not be able to repel an invasion without the help of Western forces.
Separatists there, backed by Moscow, have been fighting Ukrainian government forces since 2014, and Russia recognized their enclaves this week as independent republics. Just weeks into 2022—amid Western refusal to give into Kremlin demands for a sphere of domination in Central and Eastern Europe—intensified Russian attacks on Ukraine appear more likely than ever. Ukraine’s ability to contain Russian aggression will shape the security environment for years to come.
Explaining the U.S. military presence in Europe as 2,000 more troops deploy
As the top UK general recently observed, it is dangerous to assume that the war on Ukraine is a limited conflict. This could be “our 1937 moment“, and everything possible must be done in order to stop territorial expansion by force, thereby averting a war similar to the one that ravaged Europe 80 years ago. Canada and its allies have threatened to impose a series of punishing economic sanctions on Russia if it invades. The United States, which is spearheading efforts to deter Russia, has said the sanctions would go into effect just hours after an invasion. "The Ukrainian armed forces could give Russia a very, very hard time," Stelzenmüller told CBC News. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has called on the U.S. to remove its nuclear weapons from Europe and for Western allied countries to stop rotating their troops through several nations in Eastern Europe.
The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep. The current conflict is more than one country fighting to take over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in "the world order."Here are some helpful stories to make sense of it all. We were involved in the design and negotiation of the first round of sanctions on Russia in 2014 while serving at the Treasury and State departments.