The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang more than in Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the frontlines. It would be wrong to say that the front lines in Ukraine are stalemated, but both sides are capable of fighting each other to a standstill as they each try to take strategic initiatives. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. This would put the "largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent" at the forefront of NATO's defence, according to the thinktank. "Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO's border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean."
- Countries on the EU's (and NATO's) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for the conflict to spill over into their own territories.
- We don't know how much more officials here in Kyiv may already know and not be saying.
- Ukrainian military officials have conceded that hopes and expectations of a great breakthrough in the counteroffensive were not met.
- The main goal became the "liberation of Donbas" - broadly referring to Ukraine's two industrial regions in the east of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Russia will be an anarchic presence—sometimes real, sometimes imagined—in every instance of European political instability. Ukraine's Defense Ministry said last week that its main goal in 2024 is to boost its domestic defense industry in the face of uncertain future supplies from its Western allies. It has also changed conscription laws, foreseeing the need to bolster its forces, which are dwarfed in size by Russia's but are more highly trained and equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal. Given Putin's track record, there is no reason to rule out another invasion of Ukraine, Kofman said.
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"The West sees that expansion as a natural and reasonable choice by individual nations. The Russians, who have long regarded themselves as a surrounded people, believe they need a bulwark of friendly, or at least, compliant countries to protect 'Mother Russia'. "Instead of fanciful talk about citizens' armies and national service, the West's military and political leaders might want to focus on tackling that threat head on, putting lead in NATO's pencil and persuading our allies to do the same." "The regional war in the Middle East, with its epicentre in Gaza, is unlikely to escalate into a World War. Currently it's not a flashpoint between the major world powers. "Four months later the theatre of war is expanding with the US and its allies being drawn deeper into the region. The defence secretary has warned we are moving to a "pre-war world", top military brass are talking about conscription and tensions in the Middle East show no signs of abating. In the meantime, the ISW noted in an analysis, "Ukrainian forces establish and consolidate defensive positions to conserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts."
- The EU has suspended import duties, quotas and trade defence measures for imports from Ukraine since June 2022 to support its economy after Russia's invasion.
- "The goal is obvious — they want to reduce international support for our state. It doesn't work! Ukraine has the right to protect and destroy the means of an aggressor's air attack," he said in comments translated by NBC News.
- The worst scenario for Putin is that it becomes another Afghanistan problem for Russian forces, or like Chechnya before 1999, with Russian forces attacked all the time and lots of reprisals, and lots of nasty incidents.
- In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe.
- After a series of humiliating retreats, his initial invasion plan has clearly failed, but Russia's war is far from over.
Recent heating breakdowns in 16 locations across Russia amid sub-freezing temperatures show that the country has routinely prioritized military spending over re-investment in general public infrastructure, the U.K.'s Ministry of Defence said Thursday. Here’s where Ukraine has mounted multiple attacks this week in the apparent beginning of its long-planned counteroffensive. Hours before the attacks began, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine made a dramatic televised plea to the people of Russia, saying he wanted to speak to them directly after Mr. Putin had rejected his phone call. At home, Russia's economy on the surface appears to have weathered a series of Western sanctions for now, although its budget deficit has soared and oil and gas revenue has fallen dramatically. President Putin, 70, has sought to distance himself from military failures, but his authority, at least outside Russia, has been shredded and he makes few trips beyond its borders. The UN human rights commissioner says at least 8,006 civilians have died and 13,287 have been wounded in 12 months of war, but the true number is likely to be substantially higher.
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For a Moscow now in permanent confrontation with the West, Beijing could serve as an economic backstop and a partner in opposing U.S. hegemony. In the worst case for U.S. grand strategy, China might be emboldened by Russia’s assertiveness and threaten confrontation over Taiwan. But there is no guarantee that an escalation in Ukraine will benefit the Sino-Russian relationship. China’s ambition to become the central node of the Eurasian economy will be damaged by war in Europe, because of the brutal uncertainties war brings.
"It would be a potentially enormous blow to Ukrainian military capability," Boston said. The conflict in eastern Ukraine began after pro-Russian separatists declared independence in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the country's east two months after Russia seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula in March 2014. NATO and Ukraine say Russia has launched cross-border artillery attacks, armed the separatists and moved weapons and personnel into the area. Separately, Ukraine's armed forces said in a statement that they would continue to "control the airspace to destroy the terrorist threat" of strikes crossing the border from Belgorod into Ukraine's Kherson region.
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Such a situation is a tinderbox in Europe, Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's president, said in emailed comments Monday. He noted that it's a "non-starter" for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine "because that leads to direct confrontation between NATO and Russian troops and accordingly risks World War III." Countries on the EU's (and NATO's) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for the conflict to spill over into their own territories. https://euronewstop.co.uk/how-did-boris-johnson-travel-to-ukraine.html wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border.
- Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all.
- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that "massive" Russian strikes show the need to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses.
- In this context, appropriate stockpiles of military equipment are essential.
- The capital Kyiv was targeted, as was the second-largest city of Kharkiv, and several other regions.
- With every day, more of the combat troops and heavy weaponry marshalled along Ukraine's borders move forward in all directions, but not as fast or as far as many expected.
- They precede their attacks with air support and artillery - hitting the targets just before the armour arrives - and do that very precisely.
The country is a major source of neon, which is used in manufacturing semiconductors. The forthcoming sanctions could include restrictions on major Russian banks that would dramatically affect Russia's ability to conduct international business. Severe U.S. sanctions could drive up prices for everyday Russians or cause Russia's currency or markets to crash. Here's how the invasion will have ripple effects far outside the borders of the conflict.
There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko. Kuzio noted that there has been speculation about Moscow seeking to install former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was stripped of his powers by Ukrainian lawmakers during the 2014 Maidan Revolution and fled Kyiv for Russia. Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory. To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 — Kherson — although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages. While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank.
- "We warn that Polish and allied aviation has been activated, which may result in increased noise levels, especially in the south-eastern part of the country," the statement added.
- The two black boxes, which record flight data, were found at the crash site in the Belgorod region.
- "Four months later the theatre of war is expanding with the US and its allies being drawn deeper into the region.
- "And the warnings are here in this period - there is enormous global uncertainty and the period of unequivocal US power is over.
- It is Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II, and host countries and aid agencies are trying to meet the astounding needs of these refugees, most of whom are women and children.
Historically, the market has bounced back relatively quickly after geopolitical events. That's what's most likely today too, analysts say, so the effect on people with 401(k) accounts may be short term. "Markets are fundamentally not prepared for a land war in Europe in the 21st century," Rediker said. As a result, U.S. officials have warned various sectors, including the semiconductor and aerospace industries, to brace for supply chain disruptions. Ukrainian economic output and industry will likely be significantly disrupted.
This is necessary, as Ukrainian weapon stocks composed of Soviet-standards equipment are depleted, and availability of such arms outside Ukraine is limited too. Crowdfunding military equipment for Ukraine – already successful in Lithuania – shows that the general international public is sympathetic and wants to play its part in this process. To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength. Creative solutions are also quickly needed to undermine the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, facilitating the export of grain.
While cities such as Mariupol were flattened, details of war crimes have emerged against civilians in Bucha, near Kyiv, and have led to an independent report that accused Russia itself of state-orchestrated incitement to genocide. He has spoken of the capture of this territory, which includes the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol, as a "significant result for Russia". The Sea of Azov, inside the Kerch Strait, "has become Russia's internal sea", he declared, pointing out that even Russian Tsar Peter the Great did not manage that. To bolster his depleted forces President Putin announced Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two, although it was partial and limited to some 300,000 reservists. For years, the Russian president has denied Ukraine its own statehood, writing in a lengthy 2021 essay that "Russians and Ukrainians were one people" dating back to the late 9th Century.